1. Executive Overview
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security and USCIS have finalized a major change to how H-1B cap registrations are selected. The process is still called a “lottery,” but it is no longer purely random. DHS has introduced a weighted selection system that adjusts the probability of selection based on wage levels. Each beneficiary will be entered a certain number of times based on the offered position’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage level.
This change does not eliminate eligibility. It changes odds, not access.
- Some registrants will have higher statistical odds of getting picked
- Many applicants will experience no eligibility change
Visual: Old vs New Selection Logic (Quick Snapshot)
| Feature | Old Lottery | New Weighted Lottery |
|---|---|---|
| Random selection | Yes | Yes (partial) |
| Wage influence | None | Yes (weighted) |
| Hard wage cutoff | No | No |
| Lower-wage eligibility | Yes | Yes |
| Guaranteed outcomes | No | No |
| Beneficiary Centric | Yes | Yes |
2. What’s Changing in the H-1B Selection System
The Prior Framework
Under the old system, every eligible registration had identical odds, regardless of role, location, or wage.
The New Framework
- Registrations are weighted (not ranked)
- Higher SOC wage levels receive more entries
- Lower SOC wage levels remain eligible
- Selection is still partially random
Visual: How Weighting Works (Conceptual)
| Wage Level | Relative Selection Weight |
|---|---|
| Level I | One entry |
| Level II | Two entries |
| Level III | Three entries |
| Level IV | Four entries |
3. New Procedures and New Information Required
What Employers Must Prepare Differently
The registration form will be expanded significantly, and registration quality will have significant downstream consequences.
Key scrutiny points:
- SOC code accuracy
- Wage level justification
- Worksite location
Visual: Pre- vs Post-Change Risk Profile
| Stage | Old Risk Level | New Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Registration accuracy | Medium | High |
| Wage alignment | Low | High |
| SOC mismatch | Medium | High |
| Documentation gaps | Medium | High |
4. The $100,000 Fee Reality Check
Confirmed Facts
There is no $100,000 H-1B filing fee imposed by the finalized rule.
What Is Being Discussed Publicly
Large fee figures referenced in the media relate to policy discussions, not enacted law.
Visual: Fact vs Fiction
| Claim | Status |
|---|---|
| $100,000 fee applies to all H-1Bs | False |
| Fee increase is finalized | False |
| Future fees possible | Unconfirmed |
| Standard employers affected now | No |
5. Geography, Wage Levels, and the Skill Proxy Problem
Why Smaller Cities May Benefit, and Why Wage ≠ Skill
This change makes one thing clear: location now matters more, but not in obvious ways.
5.1 How Wage Levels Are Actually Determined (Regulatory Fact)
Wage levels are based on local labor markets, not national prestige.
Factors include:
- Occupation (SOC)
- Worksite location
- Experience and responsibility
Visual: Same Job, Different City, Different Wage Level
| Role | City | Wage | Wage Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software Engineer | San Jose, CA | $264,514 | Level IV |
| Software Engineer | Des Moines, IA | $138,507 | Level IV |
5.2 Why Smaller Cities Can Remain Competitive
Prevailing wages are determined locally, not nationally:
- Non-tech hubs are not automatically disadvantaged
- Level III–IV roles outside major cities can remain competitive
- Healthcare, education, manufacturing, research remain viable
Visual: Geographic Impact Map (Web Interactive)
Interactive on web:
A map allowing users to select:
- City
- Occupation
- Wage
- Resulting wage levels
5.3 Where the Model Strains (Expert Interpretation)
Policy analyst Jeremy Neufeld highlights that wage-based weighting can prioritize seniority rather than skill scarcity.
Visual: Counterintuitive Outcomes Table
| Role | City | Wage | Level | Relative Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pediatric Surgeon | PA | $260,000 | Level I | Lower |
| Market Research Analyst | OH | $75,000 | Level IV | Higher |
| Hardware Engineer | AZ | $130,000 | Level I | Lower |
| HR Manager | MO | $93,000 | Level II | Higher |
This does not indicate a system error. It reflects how prevailing wage mechanics function.
6. Can Everyone Still Apply for H-1B?
Visual: Eligibility Continuity Checklist:
| Category | Still Eligible? |
|---|---|
| F-1 students | Yes |
| OPT / STEM OPT | Yes |
| Startups | Yes |
| Nonprofits | Yes |
| Mid-size companies | Yes |
7. How to Use These Changes to Your Advantage
Employer Strategy Dashboard:
| Area | Action |
|---|---|
| SOC & Level selection | Conservative, defensible |
| Wage-setting | Market-aligned |
| Documentation | Front-loaded |
| Timing | Early preparation |
Candidate Strategy Dashboard
| Area | Action |
|---|---|
| Role clarity | Understand classification |
| Education match | Document alignment |
| Timing | Prepare pre-registration |
8. What Has NOT Changed
Visual: Stability Matrix
| Requirement | Changed? |
|---|---|
| Specialty occupation | No |
| Cap numbers | No |
| Randomness | Reduced, not removed |
| Lower-wage eligibility | Still allowed |
9. Next Steps for Employers and Applicants
Employer Checklist
- Audit SOC and wage level alignment
- Review registration practices
- Train HR and recruiting teams
- Prepare documentation before registration opens
Applicant Checklist
- Confirm job classification accuracy
- Avoid last-minute changes
- Coordinate closely with your employer
- Seek legal guidance early
10. Frequently Asked Questions
1.Is the H-1B lottery gone?
No. It remains a lottery, now with weighted probabilities.
2.Is this only for high-paid workers?
No. Lower-wage roles remain eligible.
3.Can startups still file?
The PERM process ends if you’re laid off and the employer does not continue it. It is employer-specific and cannot be transferred. You must restart the PERM process with a new sponsor.
4.Does job location matter?
Yes, relative to local wage standards.
5.Is this permanent?
It is a finalized rule. Any change would require new rulemaking.
11. Conclusion: What This Means for H-1B Cap 2026 and Beyond
These changes will certainly affect how employers will make job offers, review minimum requirements and determine work locations. However, all beneficiaries continue to remain eligible for selection I the H-1B Lottery.
For employers and professionals who plan early, classify roles accurately, and document carefully, opportunity remains firmly intact.
Next Steps, Free Visa Assessment with VisaPro
If you want to understand how your specific role, city, and wage level may be treated under the new weighted selection system, individualized analysis is essential.
VisaPro offers a free visa assessment with an experienced immigration attorney to help you:
- Evaluate your H-1B cap strategy
- Review job classification and wage alignment
- Identify risks before registration opens
Schedule your free visa assessment here:
https://www.visapro.com/service-options/consult-attorney/immigration-lawyer-consultation/
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